Sanctions Warning As Ukraine Ceasefire Holds

Deep Divisions Amid Fragile Ukraine Peace

Updated: 12:27pm UK, Saturday 06 September 2014

By Katie Stallard, Moscow Correspondent in Mariupol

Ceasefire is a temporary state. It's not the same as lasting peace.

What has been agreed so far is a halt in the bloodshed - the reasons people took up arms in the first place have so far not been addressed.

The Ukrainian President sounds optimistic - a prisoner exchange could begin as soon as this weekend, a second Russian aid convoy could be allowed in.

The self-proclaimed prime minister of the separatist Luhansk People's Republic is less encouraging.

He said the status of the people's republics had not been discussed, and the ceasefire should not be taken to mean they had abandoned their plans to separate from Ukraine.

The commander of one of the pro-Ukrainian battalions outside Mariupol said they would use the time to regroup and retrain.

The divisions run deep, and not just among the militia.

Plenty of people in the east did not support the winter revolution - from their perspective what they saw was their democratically elected president overthrown, and a government now in Kiev they believe seized power in a coup d'etat.

Some want more regional autonomy, others want their region to secede and join Russia.

On the other side are the pro-Ukrainians who fought for the future of their country on the Maidan, some of whom have now joined volunteer battalions in the east.

They have already seen part of their country annexed by President Vladimir Putin, and believe the Russian army is fighting on the side of the rebels, intervening in their sovereign state.

They want their country to be united, to be allowed to move towards the European Union, and they want their land back.

Militarily we're back to relative stalemate - that in itself is quite a reversal of fortunes.

A couple of weeks ago it seemed the Ukrainian army was in the ascendant - the rebels seemed to be on the backfoot, retreating and largely restricted to the centres of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Over the course of the last fortnight, the rebels have had a sudden and mysterious resurgence - opening a new front in the south threatening the strategic port city of Mariupol, and simultaneously taking villages and towns to the east of the regional capital Donetsk.

Now it's the Ukrainian army losing ground, and the overall balance is roughly back to where it was.

Kiev says that's because Russia is sending troops and equipment across the border - not in sufficient quantities to look like an overt invasion and force the west to act, but enough to stop the rebels from being defeated.

The Kremlin insists any Russian soldiers in Ukraine are either on holiday or lost.

A return to stalemate would quite suit President Putin.

He doesn't necessarily need the rebels to win, and he doesn't seem to want to occupy, and have to defend, eastern Ukraine.

A frozen conflict, that could be thawed as and when necessary, could be just fine.

In terms of domestic Russian politics, President Putin doesn't want the Maidan revolution to be followed by success - his administration has long feared a colour revolution, in the manner of Ukraine or Georgia, fomenting outside the Kremlin walls in Moscow.

Much better that that revolution is synonymous in Russian minds with violence and chaos.

Russian state TV is pushing that narrative heavily at home.

In terms of broader geopolitics, the Kremlin doesn't want a united Ukraine leaving its sphere of influence to join the EU, and maybe one day Nato.

They don't want to find Nato bases on their western border in five years' time.

Keeping a level of control of the east, and an insurgency that has not been defeated, could give Moscow just the leverage it needs.

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